Maryland board hears study showing GPA and state tests predict first-year college success; researchers weigh adding GPA as an alternative CCR measure

Maryland State Department of Education staff told the State Board of Education on April 25 that an exploratory study by the Maryland Assessment Research Center found high-school grade point average and the state 10th-grade English language arts assessment were the strongest single predictors of students' first-year college grade point average.

MSDE senior staff presented the analysis and described three main takeaways: (1) cumulative high-school GPA and ELA10 scores showed higher correlations with first‑year college GPA than college-admissions tests and earlier math tests; (2) GPA was slightly more precise than other measures in predicting a 3.0 first‑year college GPA; and (3) using multiple measures — for example, allowing students who meet a GPA threshold to qualify for the CCR designation even if they do not meet the ELA+math cut scores — would expand the pool of students identified as college-and-career ready while producing comparable first‑year outcomes.

The MARC exploratory work linked cohorts of Maryland high‑school graduates to in‑state college outcomes. For the cohorts studied (2017–2019), roughly 55,000 students met the sample criteria for first‑year GPA analysis. MSDE staff said adding a GPA pathway at thresholds in the 2.7–2.9 range would have identified an additional 8,500–11,000 students by the end of 10th grade in the modeled cohort; by the end of 12th grade the increase would be about 8,000–10,000 additional students, with gains concentrated among Black and Hispanic students in the study sample.

MSDE emphasized the exploratory study is preliminary. American Institutes for Research (the contractor the state selected after an RFP) is conducting a longer-term study that combines expanded quantitative panels and a qualitative content-alignment review; that final report is due on or before Sept. 1 and is the statutorily required evidence base for any permanent CCR standard.

Board members asked about practical implications. MSDE staff said the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future uses community colleges as a key benchmark: the law directs institutions of higher education that are open-enrollment to accept students who are identified CCR, which MSDE staff said would reduce placement into noncredit developmental courses for students who meet CCR. Board members and staff flagged implementation questions — including how to define GPA (unweighted vs. weighted), how to address variation in local grading practices, and whether measures should vary by postsecondary pathway (for example STEM vs. other majors). MSDE said AIR’s full study will examine a broader set of measures, retention/second-year metrics, and focused stakeholder input (higher ed, workforce and K–12).

Next steps: MSDE plans to present interim findings from AIR to the board in a future meeting and to convene technical briefings ahead of the fall decision when the board must consider adopting a long‑term CCR standard.