Interim study: adding high-school GPA to Maryland's CCR standard would raise the share deemed ready and improve predictive accuracy

Researchers from the American Institutes for Research (AIR) presented interim findings of a long-term study MSDE commissioned to test the validity of Maryland's interim college-and-career-readiness (CCR) standard. The research used longitudinal data for roughly 300,000 students and compared the state's test-score-based interim standard to alternative definitions that add PSAT or high-school GPA options.

Jordan Rickles of AIR summarized the main takeaways: "More students can meet the CCR standard if the GPA option is included," and the study found that the share meeting the standard rose from roughly 40% under the interim test-score-only rule to about 64% when a high-school GPA (3.0) option was allowed. The team also reported the interim standard's accuracy rate at about 65% for predicting whether students earned at least 12 college credits in their first postsecondary semester; adding GPA increased that accuracy to roughly 75%.

Presenters described the methods (predictive classification using college credits and GPA as postsecondary benchmarks), cohort selection (five cohorts spanning roughly 2011'12 through 2021'22), and limits, including that the interim results focus on students who enrolled in Maryland colleges the fall after expected graduation and that some measures (like the newer MCAP state test) could not be analyzed yet. They emphasized that the content-and-standards alignment work will be integrated into the final report due to MSDE, the governor and legislature by September 1.

Board and AIB members pressed for more detail on subgroup results, the implications for career/technical pathways and disconnected youth, and how to avoid unintended consequences such as grade inflation if GPA becomes high-stakes. Researchers said additional analyses, more measures (AP/IB, CTE course success) and focus groups are planned in the next 4'6 weeks to refine the final recommendations.