Summit County health staff warn of likely seasonal rise in COVID, flu and RSV; wastewater surveillance to guide response

Nancy, a Summit County health department presenter, told the Board of Health that U.S. and Utah hospitalizations for COVID-19 have shown a recent slight increase and that the county is preparing for the usual fall rise in respiratory viruses. "We are starting to see a slight uptick," Nancy said, adding that wastewater surveillance and hospitalizations are the most reliable measures now that routine testing has declined.

The presentation outlined surveillance limits and timing. Nancy said wastewater reports are typically about a week to 10 days behind sample collection and that the state posts wastewater summaries each Thursday. She showed Colville-area wastewater charts that recently shifted between "watch," "increasing" and "low" levels and cautioned the board not to overinterpret short-term fluctuations. "It will give us an indicator," she said, "but we have to take it with a grain of salt."

Nut graf: County health staff urged the board to expect a more typical seasonal pattern this year for COVID, influenza and RSV but stressed uncertainty: updated COVID vaccines, newly available RSV monoclonal products for select groups, reduced routine testing and surveillance lags mean officials will rely on wastewater and hospitalization data and will report upticks through department dashboards.

On COVID variants and vaccines, Nancy said the dominant circulating lineages belong to the XBB family (EG.5 and FL.1.5.1) and that preliminary laboratory data suggest the forthcoming XBB-directed vaccine should provide coverage. Derek, the nursing director, told the board the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will meet and that once CDC guidance is issued, shipments could arrive in roughly 10 days to two weeks. "Tomorrow the ACIP with the CDC votes," Derek said. "As soon as that recommendation goes out, we're being told 10 days to 2 weeks till we receive our vaccines." The department said it expects vaccinations to be broadly available by October.

Board members pressed staff on vaccine timing and effectiveness. Dr. Golding said existing vaccines and prior immunity should offer protection and estimated roughly a 25 percent reduction in long-COVID incidence among vaccinated people compared with unvaccinated people, while noting the evidence is still evolving. On seasonal flu, presenters recommended fall timing for vaccination (October was suggested as a practical target) because flu protection wanes over months; nursing leadership estimated roughly four to five months of expected protection from flu vaccination.

The board also discussed RSV prevention. Staff described a new monoclonal-antibody product for adults 60 and older with high-risk conditions and a separate option for some infants entering their first RSV season; clinicians will use shared decision-making for adult use. The department does not plan on providing the RSV product directly from county clinics at this time but said pharmacies will offer it under clinical guidance.

Staff asked the public to seek vaccination if eligible, stay home when sick and improve indoor ventilation. The department plans weekly dashboard updates of wastewater and hospitalization metrics during respiratory season and will publish guidance if trends change.