Committee hears BLA estimates and city departments on costs, equity and next steps for building electrification

The Land Use and Transportation Committee held a multi-agency hearing on a Budget and Legislative Analyst (BLA) report analyzing what it would take to decarbonize residential buildings by eliminating natural gas usage.

Supervisor Matt/Mark Marr (sponsor) said electrifying existing buildings is essential to meet San Francisco’s net-zero goals and introduced BLA authors Fred Brusseau and Reuben Holleber, who summarized the report’s findings. The BLA used two external consultant studies to generate low- and high-cost scenarios: using Navigant-derived low-end averages, retrofitting roughly 240,231 housing units was estimated near $3.5 billion; a higher-scenario estimate using E3 consulting produced a figure near $5.9 billion. Per-unit averages varied substantially by building type and methodology.

BLA presenters emphasized policy options the city could consider to manage cost and equity: (a) a wholesale retrofit program funded at scale (highest cost, greatest emissions reduction); (b) incremental rules such as requiring electric appliances at the end of life or at time of sale (lower near-term cost but slower emissions reductions); (c) targeted incentive programs modelled on Sacramento Municipal Utility District’s $13,750-per-household approach; and (d) financing structures including bonds combined with rebates and phased implementation. The BLA noted key uncertainties: appliance accessibility in older buildings, panel and distribution upgrades, and the long-term trajectory of gas and electricity prices.

Charles Sheehan from the Department of the Environment described public-health and resilience rationales for eliminating gas (indoor air quality, methane hazards, and faster electricity restoration after major earthquakes) and pushed for equity-centered planning (tenant protections, anti-displacement measures and workforce investments). Catherine Spalding of the SFPUC said Clean Power SF and Hetch Hetchy already supply most city electricity and expect to reach 100% renewable supply by 2025, but flagged distribution upgrades handled by PG&E, potential rate impacts and customer-side upgrades (transformer or panel work) as constraints. SFPUC described planned heat-pump water-heater incentives and municipal pilot projects for municipal buildings and multifamily housing.

Advocates from Emerald Cities Collaborative, the Climate Emergency Coalition and community groups emphasized a just-transition approach with targeted funding for low-income households, job-training pathways, and anti-displacement protections. Public callers — including contractors and energy-affordability organizations — urged smaller-scale pilots targeted to low-income households and streamlined permitting.

Committee members asked for more details about funding, comparisons with other cities’ incentive programs, workforce pipeline requirements and a feasible timeline. Speakers recommended the Board consider appointing a working group or convening a multi-stakeholder process to design a roadmap, funding study and pilot programs. Supervisor Marr moved to file the hearing for the record; the committee approved the motion and the hearing was filed.