Demographer: Tempe Union faces sustained enrollment decline; retention and ESAs cited as pivotal

Mr. Brammer, the district demographer, told the Tempe Union High School District governing board that long‑term demographic trends and recent programmatic changes are combining to reduce district enrollment.

“In the last two years alone, we've lost close to a thousand students,” Mr. Brammer told the board during a study session, describing a six‑year period of declining enrollment and a peak of roughly 14,000 students in 2013–14. He attributed declines to an aging local population, lower birth rates, and increased school choice—including a sharp statewide increase in students using Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs).

Mr. Brammer cited ESA participation as a newly significant factor: “The previous year was about 36,000. This year is about 66,000. The current number is almost 77,000,” he said, noting that a higher share of ESA users this year came from public schools than in prior years. He said that shift makes ESAs more likely to affect district enrollment going forward.

The presentation combined district‑level and fine‑grained grid‑level analysis. Mr. Brammer described maps showing broad five‑year declines in many neighborhoods—particularly west of I‑10—and said that multifamily growth concentrated near downtown and ASU tends to yield fewer school‑age children than single‑family development. He also identified a large upcoming project, the Upper Canyon state‑land development led by Blandford Homes, with model homes targeted for late 2025 and initial closings in late 2025 or early 2026.

Using household and feeder‑district birth‑rate data, Mr. Brammer presented scenarios in which in‑district enrollment could fall substantially over the next decade. One illustrative projection reduced enrollment from roughly 12,132 students today to about 9,400 over 10 years—a decline approaching 3,000 students. He emphasized that a district’s “service rate” (the share of school‑age residents who attend district schools) matters more than raw population figures: holding service rate steady would reduce projected losses.

Board members pressed on implications and responses. Member Barraza asked whether falling mortgage rates or a Federal Reserve change could trigger family moves back into the district; Mr. Brammer said lower rates can help but timing and affordability uncertainty cause many would‑be buyers to wait. Vice President James, Member Steele and Member Hodge emphasized retention work and community outreach—suggesting principals and school leaders be more active public faces and proposing coordinated marketing and partnership efforts.

Member Steele said the governing board and staff are committed to developing plans to retain and recruit students: “We have all intentions to come up with a plan to not only keep the students and retain more, but keep Tempe Union alive and thriving,” she said.

The board did not take action on policy or boundary changes at the meeting. The presentation concluded with Mr. Brammer recommending continued monitoring of ESAs, fine‑grained neighborhood data, and strategies to improve the district’s service rate.