NVTA committee outlines four 'what‑if' scenarios to test long‑range transaction robustness

At the Nov. 29 Planning and Programming Committee meeting, staff presented four scenario definitions intended to test uncertainty in the NVTA transaction evaluation and long‑range planning.

Staff (Dalia and others) framed the scenarios as "what‑if" sensitivity tests rather than predictions. Scenario 1 explores whether pandemic‑era changes (wider telework, changed retail patterns, altered car ownership and household locations) persist to 2045 and how that would affect transit willingness and land‑use forecasts. "What if some of the pandemic trends that we've seen particularly around transportation become a new normal in the long term?" staff asked, urging members to consider changes in willingness to ride transit and possible jurisdictional land‑use shifts.

Scenario 2 examines a technology future: connected, automated, shared and electric vehicles and their implications for microtransit, automated buses and operating costs. Staff noted that automation could reduce hourly operating costs for buses and potentially allow service expansion if costs fall. Members observed microtransit and on‑demand services could play different roles in urban and rural contexts.

Scenario 3 looks at pricing and incentives (examples: free transit pilots, incentive apps to shift trip times, curb pricing and broader roadway pricing). Staff and members stressed equity: any pricing regime would require further study on distributional impacts and protections for low‑income households.

Scenario 4 was discussed both as a climate‑driven exercise (removing at‑risk coastal infrastructure) and as a combined scenario that draws on the first three (changes in commuting, technology deployment and pricing) to explore resilience. Staff recommended coordinating with TPB/COG climate work before finalizing the climate scenario to avoid duplication of ongoing regional analysis.

Committee members urged practical framing: specify what the transportation sector realistically can achieve on greenhouse‑gas goals, link scenario assumptions to studies and pilots (VMT or pricing pilots), and examine 'hotspots' where combined strategies (technology, transit, pricing) could yield gains. Staff said the scenario runs are intended to reveal where investments are robust across uncertain futures and where they are sensitive to alternative trajectories.

Next steps: staff will refine scenario assumptions and coordinate with TPB/COG climate analysis before running the transaction model variants.