Metropolitan Council releases 2024 population estimates showing slower, less geographically balanced growth

Metropolitan Council staff presented 2024 population estimates on July 23 that show slower overall population growth than the prior decade and a shift of more growth to the region’s developing edge.

“ We just released our estimates for 2024 last week,” said the presenter, who summarized the methodology and main findings. Staff reported the 2024 estimate at about 3,248,000 people — an increase of about 85,000 (2.7%) since 2020. By comparison, the 2010s added roughly 313,500 people over that decade.

Key findings staff emphasized: housing production has remained strong — adding roughly 21,000 housing units per year on average since 2020, nearly double average annual unit production from the prior decade — but occupancy rates fell as vacancy increased, especially in the multifamily sector. Staff reported the region’s household occupancy rate declined from 95.7% in 2020 to 94.5% in 2024, producing a gap between units built and occupied; staff said about 84,000 housing units have been added since 2020 while households increased by roughly 64,000, leaving a net of about 20,000 more vacant units.

Household size fell: average household size reported fell from about 2.503 in 2020 to 2.445 in 2024, a drop staff tied in part to fewer children per household and to “empty nest” households as younger adults establish separate households. Natural population change also weakened: staff reported births down from about 39,000 per year pre-2020 to about 36,000, while deaths rose by roughly 3,400 per year — a net swing of roughly 6,400 people per year when comparing births minus deaths.

Methodology and review: staff described estimates as a synthesis of census counts, a local building-permit survey and other administrative inputs; the council sent preliminary estimates to local governments for review and received feedback from 12 communities, of which five resulted in revisions. Staff then transmitted the finalized estimates to state agencies for allocation uses such as local government aid and state transportation aid.

Council members asked for more granular analysis and comparisons to other metro areas. Members also raised housing-market details — including differences by housing type, affordability tiers and the role of immigration — and staff said more detailed breakdowns are available on the council’s website at metrocouncil.org/populationestimates.

What the council did: the item was presented as information and there was no council vote. Staff signaled follow-up briefings and noted permitting trends and immigration changes will affect future estimates.