Whatcom County consultants project up to 600 beds by 2050; design‑builder selection moves toward contract

A consultant for the county’s jail project told the Whatcom County Incarceration Prevention and Reduction Task Force on July 28 that a time‑series forecast used in a preliminary rated‑bed capacity analysis projects roughly 600 beds by 2050 and about 560 beds under a commonly used 80% operating guideline.

The analysis, presented by Adam (STV consultant), said the firm DLZ used a time‑series model that draws on local jail admissions, average daily population and average length of stay, and county population growth. Adam said the county’s population could exceed 300,000 by 2050 and that average length of stay is the single biggest driver of bed need: "If you can get people in and out quicker, then you're gonna need less beds overall," he said.

Why it matters

The projection matters for design, utilities and operations: the project team is preparing to contract with a selected design‑builder in August, and early planning choices—such as kitchen and laundry sizing—affect whether the facility can expand later. County staff and consultants said they intend to size infrastructure to allow staged expansion without building an oversized staffed facility immediately.

Key details from the presentation

- Method and scope: DLZ used a time‑series forecast favored by the consultant team for rated‑bed analyses. Adam said that, because jail buildings are long‑lived, the county asked the consultant to present a planning view out to 2050. The presenter warned that forecasts become less certain the farther they extend.

- Main drivers: The four primary inputs are county population trends, admissions to the county jail, average daily population and average length of stay. Adam told the task force that average length of stay is especially uncertain because booking restrictions and missing data obscure near‑term patterns.

- Capacity numbers and composition: The consultant presented multiple horizons. A commonly cited planning figure presented with a 20% operating buffer was about 560 beds (the consultant said the National Institute of Corrections guidance uses an 80% operating rule). For 2050, Adam summarized a planning figure of about 600 rated beds and noted a planning upper bound of about 720 when including additional future expansion buffers. He broke the 560–600 range into component bed types, saying approximately 156 special‑housing beds, about 288 general‑population beds and roughly 36 orientation beds were included in the model for the midrange scenario.

- Special housing and behavioral health: The consultants recommended building specialized medical, mental‑health and behavioral‑management spaces up front because those spaces are harder to repurpose later. The team said some behavioral‑health care might be delivered outpatient and separate from the in‑custody special‑housing inventory; the behavioral health model currently under development will inform the final allocation.

- Staffing and lessons from nearby counties: Task force members and county staff raised concerns about overbuilding or designing spaces that cannot be staffed. Caleb Erickson, chief corrections deputy with the sheriff’s office, said Skagit County designed for a 2040 outlook and later struggled to staff some parts of its new facility; Snohomish County has also faced long‑term staffing shortages, which left some space unused.

- Design‑builder procurement: The project team reported that the selection process produced a design‑builder team and that an intent‑to‑award has been issued. The selected construction joint venture is the Clark and Ram team with Nelson Worldwide as design lead and RMC as a local architect; the county said it expects contracting with that team in August and that the design‑builder’s preconstruction work will be informed by the capacity and behavioral‑health analyses.

Quotes

"We're really thinking about building out to 2050 because these buildings tend to last 75 ish years," Adam said. "So we're looking at over 300,000 people that are going to be in your county."

Caleb Erickson said of nearby projects: "They were planning their facility for about a 2040 outlook," and that staffing shortfalls have left parts of some new facilities closed.

What was not decided

Presenters did not recommend a final bed count to the task force at this meeting; the figures were framed as planning scenarios tied to different assumptions. No formal action or vote on bed count occurred. The task force and consultants noted that staffing, cost and policy changes (for example, changes that reduce average length of stay) could materially change the number of beds the county needs.

Next steps

County staff said the design‑builder contract is expected in August; the design‑builder will work with the county on final bed configuration, behavioral‑health programming and design details. The behavioral‑health model and a separate crisis relief / diversion planning process are underway and will inform the design‑builder’s work.

Ending

Task force members urged the county to prioritize early choices that avoid creating spaces that cannot be staffed. The consultants and staff emphasized the plan’s sensitivity to average length of stay and to the missing, suppressed booking data that make near‑term forecasts (for example, 2030) the most uncertain.