Consultants forecast modest near-term enrollment growth; recommend conservative two‑section approach for most elementary planning

Harpeth Research and Wold Architects told the Coffee County Board of Education that countywide population growth is real but concentrated in Manchester and, to a lesser extent, Tullahoma; their school enrollment forecast projects roughly 5–5.7% systemwide growth by 2035 and recommended conservative school-building plans focused on two‑section capacity for most elementary schools.

Consultants said they combined Boyd Center and U.S. Census data with more than a decade of district enrollment records to produce grade‑by‑grade forecasts. Patrick Chablinski of Harpeth Research said the county’s school‑age population, after removing Manchester and Tullahoma, has grown only modestly since 2010 and that “yes, Coffee County is growing, but right now that population growth is very much concentrated in Manchester.” Analyst Ben Jablonski summarized the forecast: “Ultimately, 2035 enrollment in kindergarten, we’re projecting to be 5.7% higher than current headcount.”

The presentation examined six elementary schools individually. Hillsborough and North Coffee showed the largest post‑pandemic increases and the strongest kindergarten cohorts; New Union showed declines; East Coffee had not rebounded to pre‑2017 levels. Harpeth found much of the recent rise reflects a rebound from COVID declines rather than a sustained countywide surge. The consultants cautioned that state Boyd Center projections show a much larger surge after 2035, but that most of that long‑term growth falls outside the consultants’ contract scope.

Wold Architects offered capacity and renovation recommendations. Wold’s presenter said a two‑section elementary (about 260‑student capacity) will accommodate modest growth scenarios and “is the right approach” for most schools now; a three‑section building (roughly 390 capacity) is appropriate only under higher growth scenarios (3–5% annual growth). Wold recommended focusing immediate funds on renovations that address building systems, office spaces, restrooms and special‑education spaces to create “true two‑section” schools before committing to new three‑section construction.

Board members raised several local factors the consultants said they tried to incorporate: Manchester annexations, new apartment construction, changes in county zoning (a five‑acre minimum in some areas), and a large new industrial park (mega‑site). Consultants said those developments influence long‑term forecasts but may not raise enrollment sharply inside the 10‑year projection window because of lag between housing/industry development and school enrollments.

Several board members asked about the high‑school survival ratios; consultants reported a post‑pandemic eighth‑to‑ninth grade jump (driven by Manchester students feeding into the county high school) and a lower eleventh‑to‑twelfth grade ratio (about 0.84), reflecting departures from the system for a range of reasons. The consultants recommended that the district monitor departures and consider programs that address retention at the high‑school level.

The board did not take formal action to build or renovate at the work session. Staff and consultants said the projections give the district a basis to prioritize renovations at Hickerson and East Coffee for programmatic improvements and to consider two‑section right‑sizing at other schools; any construction or bond planning would return to the board for formal decisions and budgeting.