EWU analyst: Grant County grew modestly in 2024 as retail sales fell and local poverty rose

Dr. Patrick Jones, a research analyst with Eastern Washington University, told the Moses Lake City Council that Grant County's population estimate for April 1, 2024 was about 106,000 and that the city of Moses Lake accounted for roughly 37,500 residents.

Jones said county population growth between April 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024 translated to a gain of nearly 1,000 people and a county growth rate just under 1 percent, while Moses Lake's estimated growth rate for that period was about 1.7 percent. "These are not just compilations of data, but they all tell a story," Jones said, summarizing the indicators he presented.

The indicators Jones highlighted matter to municipal budgeting and planning: Department of Revenue figures show taxable retail sales in the county fell from about $3.8 billion in 2023 to roughly $3.6 billion in 2024, a decline of about $200 million and nearly a 7 percent year‑over‑year decrease. Jones said the largest industry declines were in building construction, appliances and home furnishings, motor vehicles and building materials; online sales were among industries that rose.

Jones showed that net migration into the county in the most recent year was small (about 157 people), so most recent county population growth reflected natural increase (births minus deaths). He also noted U.S. Census five‑year estimates show the share of county residents who do not speak English at home is unusually high (about 37 percent in the latest period), while Moses Lake's share is lower by roughly 10 percentage points on the five‑year estimate.

Jones said residential permitting data continue to show single‑family permits outnumbering multifamily permits in most years and that, on a per‑capita basis, county building activity is similar to the statewide pace. On housing prices, Jones cited University of Washington resale data showing a Q2 median county resale price of about $368,000, up from about $332,000 several quarters earlier.

On affordability and hardship, Jones said the community saw its highest recent count of people living in poverty in the city: roughly 3,900 people on average in the 2019–2023 five‑year period and a city poverty rate near 15 percent. For context, he explained the federal poverty threshold for a family of four in 2024 is roughly $32,000.

Jones also presented crime and housing‑supply indicators: listings in the county reached about 433 in the most recent month — an all‑time high for the series — while Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs data show long‑term declines in property crime since the 2006 peak, though Moses Lake's property‑crime trend rose during the pandemic and remains higher than earlier years.

Council members asked about local inflation measures and cost‑of‑living indicators. Jones said the Bureau of Labor Statistics is limited in its local coverage but offered to research a comparative metro measure and follow up with the city clerk. He noted that when wages are adjusted for inflation, reported real earnings in the county have declined over the last three years.

Jones told the council the trends site will publish updated single‑year county estimates next month and that new five‑year city estimates will be available in December. He said he will return in November for an Economic Development Council event.

Ending: The presentation covered eight indicators drawn from a broader 140‑indicator county trends platform Jones helps maintain; he emphasized the data are a starting point for municipal discussion and pledged to provide follow‑up information requested by the council.