Weber: today's AI boom looks larger than the dot-com era

Responding to a direct question about whether San Francisco is in another bubble, Jonathan Weber told the Commonwealth Club audience that the short answer was affirmative and explained why the present cycle differs from the 2000 crash.

"So I think, I mean, the short answer is yes. We're we're in another bubble," Weber said, then described two key differences: scale and the role of AI in driving enterprise software revenue. He contrasted the dot-com era's smaller labor share with what he described as a much larger footprint today, saying tech employment accounted for about "35% as of 2019" in San Francisco.

Weber argued that much of today's revenue and valuation growth is driven by AI applied to coding and enterprise software, which creates a larger and more systemic exposure than the earlier web-era companies. He cautioned that while AI may be highly lucrative, that does not imply an imminent technological singularity; instead, he framed AI as a new cycle in enterprise software with broad economic consequences.

The remarks were part of a longer conversation about city culture and politics, not a technical market forecast, and Weber emphasized uncertainty about timing and triggers for any market correction. His comments were framed as interpretation based on reporting and historical comparisons rather than a precise market prediction.