OFM budget director: ending fund balance depends on expenditures; November data will determine shortfall

In response to a public question about projected ending fund balances, the budget director said specific shortfall numbers are premature and depend on expenditures and agency decision packages that are still under review.

“So, Jerry, I think we'd have to get back to you with, like, really specific numbers,” the budget director said when pressed for a numeric shortfall. He explained that ending fund balances depend on agency requests and maintenance-level expenditure assumptions and that the November forecast and caseload projections are required to produce a reliable shortfall estimate.

The director characterized the overall budget picture as mixed — slightly worse for the near biennium and somewhat better for the subsequent biennium — and emphasized that numbers can swing by hundreds of millions as new receipts or data are recorded.