Council accepts September revenue forecast with minimal near-term change, larger outer-biennium decline

The Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Sept. 25 approved an updated revenue forecast that shows almost no net change in the current biennium and a meaningful decline in the next biennium.

Dave Wright, economic and revenue forecast council executive director, said the office’s consolidated estimate for the current biennium is down roughly $1,000,000 — effectively a no-change forecast — while the outer biennium is down about $126,000,000, or roughly 1.2% of total transportation revenues. "We're down about 126,000,000 in that biennium," Wright said during the presentation.

Wright attributed the larger outer-biennium decline primarily to two policy-driven adjustments: a significant reduction in expected revenue from speed safety cameras and a lowering of receipts tied to zero-emission vehicle credit assumptions. He also emphasized that routine category shifts, statutory transfers and timing adjustments between fiscal years explain much of the year-to-year variability.

Senator Lias moved to accept the forecast and the council approved the motion by voice vote. The record shows the motion was moved and seconded and the chair called for ayes; the council answered in the affirmative and the motion passed.

Wright said federal transportation funding assumptions have not changed from the June forecast and noted that continuing-resolution language extends federal support through mid-December. He also warned that the office’s scenarios remain sensitive to how external factors — including international conflict and energy-price movements — evolve over the coming months.