ERC: Iran war and energy prices remain top near-term risks to transportation revenues

Dave Wright, executive director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, told members that international developments — especially the ongoing Iran war — are "top of mind" for the September forecast and drive the office’s optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Wright said elevated energy prices remain a principal channel by which the conflict affects the state forecast. He cited the Seattle consumer price index for August (excluding energy) at about 3.9% and noted that gasoline and diesel prices spiked earlier in the year; diesel, in particular, has record national highs that disproportionately affect truckers and agriculture.

Wright emphasized scenario sensitivity: "both of those scenarios are based on Iran's war scenarios," meaning that a worse-than-expected international deterioration would be a downside risk to the baseline revenue forecast. The council noted the need to watch oil- and diesel-price trajectories as inputs to the November forecast.