Scientists say pan‑basin warming and an intense El Niño have pushed Northeast Pacific into exceptional marine‑heat state

Nate Manua, a researcher with the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, told the Marine Mammal Commission that the Northeast Pacific is in an "extraordinary place" of ocean warming and marine heatwaves driven by a combination of regional and basin‑scale changes. "We really are in an extraordinary place today and have been for the last few months with the exceptional warmth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean," Manua said, noting a broad warm band from the international date line to South America and very warm patches along the California coast.

Manua presented satellite and time‑series data showing that several of the years since about 2014 fall at the upper margins of recent baselines and that 2025–2026 rank among the largest spikes. He summarized peer‑reviewed work that identifies a pan‑basin warming pattern in the North Pacific that has grown to explain a majority of sea‑surface temperature variance in recent years, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) still contributes but explains less relative variance than before.

The talk highlighted that warming is not confined to the surface: "the North Pacific has been warm, but also down to 200 even 300 meters below the surface in much of the western and central North Pacific," Manua said. That subsurface heat, he said, gives the region memory and persistence that can sustain anomalously warm conditions. He also flagged a rapidly developing El Niño: he described Climate Prediction Center forecasts that show a very high likelihood of a strong El Niño through the coming winter, which could reshape regional temperature patterns and circulation.

Why it matters: extended warm conditions at the surface and at depth can alter productivity and species distributions, change prey availability for top predators, and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme marine‑heat events. Manua urged monitoring of both surface and subsurface changes because of their potential to influence ecosystems for at least the next year.

What’s next: Manua’s presentation pointed to continued tracking of the pan‑basin warming signal, subsurface heat content, and El Niño forecasts to anticipate ecological impacts; he urged cross‑discipline integration of oceanographic forecasts with biological monitoring.