Analysis presented linking lower PCFG body condition and shorter length to reduced calving probability

At the symposium a presenter summarized analyses that connect body condition, morphology and probable reproductive output for Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG) whales.

The presenter reported that PCFG whales show significantly lower body area index (BAI) compared with ENTP whales and that PCFG asymptotic lengths (maximum size estimates) have declined since about 2000. Using bioenergetic modeling, the presenter said calves are unlikely to be produced by females below certain size and energetic thresholds and that modeled calving probability falls substantially for females shorter than about 11–12 m or with low nutritional state: "no female less than 11–12 meters was ever estimated to have reproduced" in their model sample, the presenter said.

Speakers said these modeled relationships imply a potential demographic consequence: lower individual reproductive output could contribute to stagnant or declining PCFG abundance. They cautioned that models depend on photogrammetry-derived size estimates, assumptions about energy budgets and limited sample sizes; continued long-term drone-based monitoring and cross-site comparisons were recommended to strengthen conclusions.