Pew urges Washington to make budget outlooks reflect long‑term fiscal reality

Sen. June Robinson convened the Joint Legislative Executive Committee on Budget Transparency and Fiscal Sustainability, where Josh Goodman of the Pew Charitable Trusts told lawmakers the state’s official budget outlook understates long‑term fiscal risk by relying on one‑time balances and single‑number forecasts. "You have these budget problems, but the outlook says that the budget's balanced," Goodman said, summarizing themes from 23 interviews and roughly 19 hours of discussions.

Goodman outlined five recommended changes: (1) make the outlook better reflect fiscal reality by excluding one‑time revenue from long‑term measures; (2) supplement point forecasts with range and scenario analyses to acknowledge uncertainty; (3) produce formal structural‑balance estimates comparing ongoing revenue to ongoing spending; (4) consolidate disparate analyses to identify and rank cost drivers; and (5) establish a more robust, interim process to examine and update the base budget.

Why it matters: Goodman said the current practice can give a false sense of sustainability. He pointed to other states that present baseline, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios and to structural‑balance calculations that reveal when policy choices will become unsustainable sooner than single‑number outlooks indicate. "We're not totally sure what's going to happen," Goodman said, recommending scenario work that shows plausible ranges and how policy decisions change under downside risks.

Committee members asked for examples and implementation details. Director Chapman and others pressed Pew on whether other states actually use these products to act early; Goodman cited Minnesota and Arizona as examples where scenario work prompted early policy responses. The session closed with Pew noting it will produce a written report with recommendations ahead of the committee's November meeting.

The committee is scheduled to receive Pew’s written report by Nov. 15 and to consider committee recommendations by Dec. 15, per the proviso tied to the study.