Senate staff outlines Washington's near‑general‑fund revenue mix and how a new income tax would shift it

Jeff Mitchell, fiscal coordinator with the Senate Ways and Means Committee, gave a high‑level overview of Washington’s near general fund and projected changes if an individual income tax were implemented. Mitchell said the 2025–27 near general fund is projected at about $76.2 billion with sales and use taxes contributing roughly 46% and business taxes (B&O) about 20%.

Looking ahead to a fully implemented individual income tax, Mitchell said the 2029–31 forecast shows the income tax generating nearly $7 billion, or almost 8% of near‑general‑fund collections. He also reviewed historic revenue trends (2005–2025), noting strong pandemic‑era consumer spending, the McCleary K‑12 finance reforms and the capital gains tax as important drivers of recent variation.

Mitchell discussed tax volatility metrics prepared by Pew and ERFC: Washington’s volatility scores (5‑year 5.6; 15‑year 4.1) are below the national medians, reflecting reliance on sales/gross receipts taxes rather than income taxes. Committee members asked for additional decomposition (for example, how much of sales/property/B&O taxes are effectively paid by businesses versus residents); Mitchell acknowledged that follow‑up would be useful.