NVTA to test future scenarios including pricing, shared EVs and autonomous vehicles

NVTA staff said they will use scenario planning (a combination of visionEval high‑level screening and the regional travel demand model) to test three‑to‑four alternate futures over the next 3–4 months and then run detailed model scenarios by early spring. The scenarios will vary "radio knobs" such as land‑use density, investment in transit and active modes, emerging technologies, and economic forces including pricing.

Committee members proposed specific scenarios to evaluate, including testing tolling/flex‑toll effects on congestion and cost of living and piloting subsidized shared electric fleets or subscription services to shift a portion of commuting trips. Staff said pricing and emerging technology adoption (shared AVs, fleet electrification) are within the scope of scenario analysis and can be tested at the regional level; operational concerns (for example, electric bus winter performance) are implementation issues jurisdictions will address separately.