Economist: Washington needs faster permits and targeted capital to close 50,000‑unit annual gap

Matthew Gardner, principal and chief economist at Gardner Economics, told the Senate Housing Committee on Sept. 17 that "Washington's housing affordability crisis is fundamentally a supply side problem compounded by cost and delays." He said the state needs roughly 50,000 new housing units a year — about 1.1 million over 20 years — to track population growth and that permits have fallen 31% cumulatively since a 2022 peak. "Completions can look healthy," he warned, "but they largely reflect a permit surge from 2021–22 landing as finished homes later," meaning the current pipeline is thin.

Gardner walked senators through common causes of stalled projects, from expired permits and rising input costs to litigation, insufficient pre‑development work, geotechnical surprises and strategic permit filings under vested‑rights doctrines. He urged reforms to speed and stabilize permitting, recommended a predictable cadence for code updates (noting the energy code is a substantial cost driver) and suggested statutory mechanisms — such as pairing a state surplus‑property process with a dedicated matching grant fund — to unlock land for housing. "Permit speed and predictability" was the theme he returned to when asked which single change would most boost production.

Why it matters: Gardner's presentation framed most of the committee's subsequent discussion. His data point that net production has cleared 50,000 units only once since 1990 underscored the scale of the policy challenge and provided a common evidentiary baseline for later panelists who addressed land, finance and off‑site construction as complementary fixes.